Tel Aviv Property Index · Prices

A price index that compares apartments with themselves

Every published Israeli house price number compares whatever happened to sell this period with whatever happened to sell last period. When the mix shifts, the index moves for reasons that have nothing to do with prices. This one only counts flats that have sold twice, so the mix cannot move it.

—index level, Q1 2022 = 100
—change over 12 months
—real change after CPI
—repeat-sale pairs

Not for publication. The charts below are drawn on sample data to fix the layout. Real figures require: a full nadlan pull for Tel Aviv paired on sub-parcel, plus the CBS consumer price index. Run the ingestion script, rebuild, and this notice disappears on its own.

Nominal and real are different stories

A market that is flat in shekels is falling in purchasing power. Both lines are here because the gap between them is the part most commentary leaves out.

Figure 1 — repeat-sales index, nominal and real

The same apartments, sold twice Repeat-sales index, Tel Aviv, Q1 2022 = 100 SAMPLE DATA — layout only, not a published figure 103 108 112 116 121 Q1 22 Q3 22 Q1 23 Q3 23 Q1 24 Q3 24 Q1 25 Q3 25 Q1 26 Q2 26 Nominal 116 Real, after CPI 105 Constant quality by construction: every observation is one flat compared with itself. Mix shift cannot move this index, which is the whole point of building it.

What the pairs also tell you

Building the index produces a second dataset for free: how long each owner held. The distribution of holding periods separates an owner-occupier market from an investor one more cleanly than any survey.

Figure 2 — distribution of holding periods

How long people hold before selling again Share of repeat-sale pairs by the gap between the two sales SAMPLE DATA — layout only, not a published figure Under 2 years 6% 2 to 5 years 21% 5 to 10 years 34% 10 to 20 years 27% Over 20 years 12% A short-hold share that starts climbing is the first sign of investor exit.

Pairs where the property was materially altered between sales — a renovation, a merged unit, a rebuilt block — break the constant-quality assumption and are excluded where they can be identified.

Why this one is different

What a repeat-sales index fixes

  • Mix shift. A quarter heavy in new build looks like a price rise in a conventional index. Here it cannot.
  • Quality drift. New stock is bigger and better specified than old stock. Comparing periods compares those differences too.
  • Small samples. Thin quarters produce violent moves in an average and mild ones in a repeat-sales index.
  • What it does not fix. Flats that sell twice are not a random sample. Renovation is invisible unless it shows in the permit record.

Method

Sales are paired on sub-parcel, so each pair is one physical apartment. The index is the weighted mean of the log price ratio of every pair overlapping each period, chained into a level series.

Non-arm's-length transfers are removed before pairing: family transfers, gifts and estate deals sit in the register at nominal values and would otherwise register as enormous price falls.

Israel Tax Authority transaction register; CBS consumer price index. Tel Aviv Property Index. Figures are recomputed on each data release; the date above each chart is the vintage shown. Provisional Tax Authority reporting is revised for several months after a quarter closes, so the two most recent periods in any series will move. This page is market information, not advice on any particular property or transaction.