Tel Aviv Property Index · Policy

How much of the new-build market is the state

Just under a third of new apartment sales in the last quarter were government subsidised. That is not a footnote to the market, it is a large part of the demand in it, and it moves with policy rather than with prices. In April 2026 more than 130,000 people registered for 7,922 discounted flats.

32.7%of new sales subsidised, Q2 2026
7,922flats in lottery 11, April 2026
130,000+registrations for them
4%chance of winning, lottery 9

The scale of the programme

Between 2016 and 2025 the discounted apartment programme ran 2,352 lotteries covering 162,563 apartments, drew 131,442 winners and took around 15.5 million registrations. That is roughly ninety-five applications for every flat offered across the decade, and the ratio has worsened since.

Figure 1 — the programme, 2016 to 2025

Ten years of the discounted apartment programme Apartments offered against winners actually drawn Apartments offered 2,352 lotteries, 2016–2025 162,563 Winners drawn not every unit finds a buyer 131,442 Offered but undrawn 31,121 Roughly 95 registrations for every apartment offered, across the decade. About 15.5 million applications in total, and competition has intensified since.

The prize, in shekels

Lottery 11 opened for registration on 15 April 2026: 7,922 apartments across 82 draws, and for the first time including central-belt cities — Petah Tikva, Kfar Saba, Rishon LeZion and Rehovot alongside Ashdod, Hadera, Kiryat Gat, Yehud, Nahariya and Eilat.

The Hadera scheme shows why the queue is what it is. 268 units three hundred metres from the sea, with the expected discount on a four-room flat running between one and one and a half million shekels against an open-market price of about ₪2.4m.

Figure 2 — lottery price against market price, Hadera

Why 130,000 people register for 7,922 flats Lottery 11, April 2026: the Hadera scheme, 268 units 300 metres from the sea Market price 4-room flat, Hadera ₪2,400,000 Lottery price, smaller discount ₪1,400,000 Lottery price, larger discount ₪900,000 A discount of ₪1m to ₪1.5m on a flat the open market prices at ₪2.4m. That is the prize, and it is why the odds are what they are.

And the odds

More than 130,000 people registered for those 7,922 flats, a record for the programme. In lottery 9 the win rate was 4%, and earlier rounds were similar. Up to half the units in lottery 11 are set aside for active reservists, a quarter of those for reserve combat soldiers; in the previous round about 46% of winners were reservists.

Step back and the programme is a third of the new-build market. Subsidised sales were 32.7% of new transactions in the second quarter of 2026, and their share inside the price index rose from 36.4% to 38.4%. That matters for anyone reading the index: when the subsidised share rises, the measured new-build price falls even if no unsubsidised flat has changed price.

Figure 3 — the programme in four percentages

A third of new-build demand is set by policy The programme in four percentages Chance of winning lottery 9, and similar before 4.0% Units reserved for reservists up to, in lottery 11 50.0% Subsidised share of new sales Q2 2026 32.7% Subsidised share inside the index risen from 36.4% 38.4% A rising subsidised share pulls the measured new-build price down on its own. No unsubsidised flat has to move for the index to fall. A third of new demand is set by policy.

What it means for a buyer

Four consequences most people miss

  • It distorts the price index. A rising subsidised share pulls the measured new-build price down mechanically. Read the index with the subsidised share next to it.
  • Most olim are not eligible. The programme is aimed at first-time buyers meeting residence and entitlement criteria, and criteria changed again in November 2025. Check before building a plan around it.
  • A win is not a free flat. Banks value against the market, not the lottery price, and there is a resale restriction of about five years.
  • Policy risk is real. A third of new demand is set by decisions that can change between one budget and the next.

Method

Programme totals come from the Ministry of Construction and Housing periodic file on the discounted apartment programme. Lottery 11 unit counts, city list and reservist allocation come from the published lottery documents; the registration figure and the Hadera discount are as reported when registration closed.

The subsidised share of new transactions comes from the CBS transaction release, and the share inside the price index from the CBS price release. They are different measures on different bases and are shown separately rather than averaged.

Ministry of Construction and Housing, discounted apartment programme periodic data and lottery 11 documents, April 2026; CBS dwelling transactions release, 13 August 2026; CBS apartment price index. Tel Aviv Property Index. Figures are recomputed on each data release; the date above each chart is the vintage shown. Provisional Tax Authority reporting is revised for several months after a quarter closes, so the two most recent periods in any series will move. This page is market information, not advice on any particular property or transaction.